Concept, meaning and definition
- Like Delphi but experts are allowed to discuss among themselves.
- Experts are asked to rank their ideas according to their perceived priority.
- Group consensus is derived mathematically in terms of individual ranking.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Delphi Technique
Concept, meaning and definition
- Involves selection of a panel of experts, whose comments are crystallized from a serious of questionnaire responses and then used as the basis to forecast.
- Group process to achieve consensus.
- A serious of questionnaire are prepared from the responses received from a prior set of questions in a sequencing manner.
- Involves selection of a panel of experts, whose comments are crystallized from a serious of questionnaire responses and then used as the basis to forecast.
- Group process to achieve consensus.
- A serious of questionnaire are prepared from the responses received from a prior set of questions in a sequencing manner.
Managerial judgment
Concept, meaning and definition
- Manager makes a judgment about the future employment levels.
- Relates to the past experience.
- Combining quantitative tools with judgment yields better results.
- Manager makes a judgment about the future employment levels.
- Relates to the past experience.
- Combining quantitative tools with judgment yields better results.
Exponential smoothing
Concept, meaning and definition
- Method smoothens random errors by giving exponentially decreasing weights to historical data.
- There is certain formula that can be used.
- Method smoothens random errors by giving exponentially decreasing weights to historical data.
- There is certain formula that can be used.
Moving Average method
Concept, meaning and definition
- Under this method, average of the combined employment level data for the forecasted employment level for the next period.
- It requires careful selection of time periods, which may be 6 period, 10 period, 12 period moving average.
- Technique is useful to guard against random fluctuations.
- Considering more time periods, we may get better results.
- Weights may be assigned for different time periods at the discretion of the analyst.
- Under this method, average of the combined employment level data for the forecasted employment level for the next period.
- It requires careful selection of time periods, which may be 6 period, 10 period, 12 period moving average.
- Technique is useful to guard against random fluctuations.
- Considering more time periods, we may get better results.
- Weights may be assigned for different time periods at the discretion of the analyst.
Time serious analysis
Concept, meaning and definition
- Employment data over a time period are used under this method as the basis for manpower forecast.
- Without considering endogenous and exogenous changes, forecasting errors may increase.
- Following five elements are observed:
o Trend:- fluctuation in level of employment over a time period.
o Cyclical Effects:- change in employment in relation to particular event.
o Seasonality.
o Step:- Sudden change in employment level due to economic environment.
o Random fluctuations.
- Employment data over a time period are used under this method as the basis for manpower forecast.
- Without considering endogenous and exogenous changes, forecasting errors may increase.
- Following five elements are observed:
o Trend:- fluctuation in level of employment over a time period.
o Cyclical Effects:- change in employment in relation to particular event.
o Seasonality.
o Step:- Sudden change in employment level due to economic environment.
o Random fluctuations.
Analysis of Workload Factors
Concept, meaning and definition
- Analysis of present and future workload.
- Analysis depends on the possibility of quantifying the work content in every area of an organizational activity.
Steps of Workload Factors
1. Classification of work:
- Done by identifying the work and time required for such job.
- Breaking jobs in different components, which together completes an operation and time requirement for each job component.
2. Forecasting the number of jobs done for a time period.
3. Converting the projected jobs into man-hours.
4. Converting the man-hour into manpower requirement.
- Analysis of present and future workload.
- Analysis depends on the possibility of quantifying the work content in every area of an organizational activity.
Steps of Workload Factors
1. Classification of work:
- Done by identifying the work and time required for such job.
- Breaking jobs in different components, which together completes an operation and time requirement for each job component.
2. Forecasting the number of jobs done for a time period.
3. Converting the projected jobs into man-hours.
4. Converting the man-hour into manpower requirement.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)