Forecasting of Manpower

We can forecast our manpower through:

a. HR demand forecasting

• Analysis of work load factors,
• Time serious analysis,
• Moving Average method,
• Exponential smoothing,
• Managerial judgment,
• Manpower forecasts through Qualitative tools- Delphi Technique, Nominal Group method.

- It involves determining the total number of personnel needed within a field or profession, or "demand forecast¬ing."
- Demand forecasts depend primarily on external factors such as economic, social, and political influences; government and legisla¬tion; markets and competition; changing technology; and the popu¬lation and work force (Cascio, 1987).
- Consequently, they are more difficult to conduct than supply forecasts. However, it is critical that the competing demands for qualified personnel be gauged.


b. HR supply forecasting

• Wastage analysis- Labour turnover index,
• stability index,
• Cohort analysis,
• Census analysis,
• Skill inventories,
• human Resource actions: Hiring, Training, career management, Layoffs, productive programmes.

- Needs analysis, particularly in relation to supply and demand of personnel in human services, must be examined with respect to two questions. The first involves determining the number of people available with specifically needed skills. Frantzreb (1981) calls this 6'supply forecasting."
- There are two sources of human resource supply: internal and external.
o Internal supply consists of current employees who can be promoted or transferred to fill expected vacancies.
o External supply is composed of qualified individuals outside of the organization who can be recruited and hired to fill those vacancies (Werther & Davis, 1989).
- Supply forecasts are analyzed initially in relation to conditions inside the organization such as turnover, retirements, and the ability to pay qualified person¬nel.
- Human resource audits are utilized to estimate internal supply. The external labor market must then be examined in regard to the anticipated availability of the kinds of employees needed.